Just Follow the Recipe

On baking fails, trend following, and the underrated power of doing the simple things well

Years ago, I tried baking something — I don’t even remember what, but I do remember trying to improvise. I swapped a few ingredients, cut a corner or two, and expected magic. The result? A flat, dense mess. The dough didn’t rise. It tasted... experimental, at best.

My father watched me wrestle with the thing and said something that stuck with me ever since:

“Just follow the recipe.”

At the time, I shrugged it off. But years later, after learning to bake properly (I now make a very fluffy Hokkaido milk bread, thank you), I realized the wisdom wasn’t just culinary — it was everywhere.

Recipe Roulette

One of my favorite Reddit subreddits is r/ididnthaveeggs, where people change 70% of a recipe, then leave a 2-star review.

It’s funny — but also familiar. Because this kind of thinking shows up far beyond baking.

Markets Have a Recipe Too

At Takahē Capital, we run a systematic trend-following fund. The method is deceptively simple:

• Make many small, independent bets

• Let the winners run

• Cut the losers short

• Stick to the process — no matter how uncomfortable

It’s not fancy. It’s not AI-enhanced market sorcery. But it works. And it has worked for decades.

Still, many dismiss it. “Where’s the edge?” they ask. “Isn’t this too basic?”

But that’s the point: it works because it's basic — and ruthlessly consistent.

We call it the pain trade for a reason. It works — but it rarely feels good in the moment.

You’re buying when prices are already high. You’re selling when they’ve already fallen. You often look “late” to the party — until you realize that riding the trend is more effective than predicting the turning point.

The Pattern Appears Everywhere

Look around, and you'll find the same structure:

Personal Finance?
→ Save consistently
→ Stay invested
→ Diversify

Health?
→ Walk 10,000 steps
→ Sleep 7–8 hours
→ Eat real food

These aren’t secrets. But they’re hard to stick with — not because they’re complex, but because they’re boring. And boring feels wrong in a world obsessed with shortcuts, breakthroughs, and miracle fixes.

The Real Secret Sauce

The magic isn't in tweaking the recipe — it's in respecting it.
The secret isn't in complexity — it's in consistency.
The challenge isn't in knowing what to do — it's in actually doing it.

The real work is fighting our instincts:

• The need to optimize before we understand

• The impulse to tinker when patience is required

• The temptation to abandon the process when it gets uncomfortable

In trend following, in health, in money — even in baking — the results come from doing the simple things well, over and over again.

A Final Thought

If I’ve learned anything, it’s this:

“Painful, boring, repeatable. That’s the edge.”

Respect the process. Follow the recipe.
That’s where the real results — and real resilience — are built.

Thanks for reading, and if this resonated:

What’s a “recipe” you’ve learned to stop tweaking?